The ongoing US-Iran conflict has led to significant market volatility, with some traders profiting by placing strategic bets just before key announcements. Six accounts on the blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket placed bets that the US would strike Iran by the end of February, earning $1.2 million after the attacks were confirmed on February 28.
On March 9, President Trump stated the war was “very complete,” causing oil prices to plunge around 25%. Notably, bets were placed shortly before this announcement, resulting in substantial gains for those traders. On March 23, just minutes before Trump announced a postponement of military strikes, S&P 500 futures worth $1.5 billion were bought, while oil futures worth $192 million were sold.
Further trades occurred before announcements of a ceasefire and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, with bets totaling approximately $950 million and $760 million, respectively. Congressman Steven Horsford has called for an investigation into these trades, suggesting they indicate a pattern of insider trading linked to the Trump administration.
Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has also criticized the administration, alleging insider trading related to the $580 million in mystery bets on oil futures.
