Operators of truck fleets across India are preparing for fuel rationing and the first significant increase in diesel prices in years. This change would end a period of relative stability, even amid ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf. India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, has not experienced the widespread price hikes seen elsewhere, as the government shields consumers and state-run refiners absorb losses.
Pressure is increasing for a price hike after key regional elections conclude next week. Truck drivers report widespread informal rationing, forcing them to stop more frequently to fill their tanks, which delays deliveries. Shailendra Gupta, an executive member at All India Motor Transport Congress, stated, “We are going to see an increase in diesel prices after the elections.”
Trucks account for nearly 70% of freight movement in India, making diesel crucial for the economy. Private players like Nayara Energy Ltd. have already raised pump prices, while Reliance Industries Ltd. and BP Plc have rationed supplies. The government has urged citizens to avoid panic buying fuel and confirmed that retail outlets are operating normally.
Standard Chartered Plc economists indicated that if crude averages $95 a barrel this fiscal year, the government may need to raise pump prices by ₹ 8-15 per litre for petrol and diesel. Brent crude was trading around $96 a barrel on Monday. India’s last widespread pump price increase occurred in 2022.
